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M9490438.TXT
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1994-09-19
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Document 0438
DOCN M9490438
TI On the role of variable incubation periods in simple epidemic models.
DT 9411
AU Malice MP; Kryscio RJ; Department of Statistics, University of Kentucky,
Lexington; 40506-0027.
SO IMA J Math Appl Med Biol. 1989;6(4):233-42. Unique Identifier : AIDSLINE
MED/94334608
AB The paper formulates a simple stochastic model which can be used to
describe the early spread of an epidemic in a large population.
Comparison of the behaviour of the epidemic under different assumptions
for the distribution of the incubation period are made using the concept
of partial ordering between random variables. It is shown that the
process describing the infectious contacts between individuals has a
major effect on the comparison of the different models. These results
have important implications for modelling the AIDS epidemic.
DE Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome/*EPIDEMIOLOGY *Epidemiologic Methods
Human *Models, Statistical *Stochastic Processes Support, U.S. Gov't,
Non-P.H.S. JOURNAL ARTICLE
SOURCE: National Library of Medicine. NOTICE: This material may be
protected by Copyright Law (Title 17, U.S.Code).